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Plain meanings for 621 market and trading terms, each linked to the lesson that teaches it.

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    Chapter 6: Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex

    114 terms, drawn from GhostWire Ch.4, 6, 14, 22, 23, 28 and Advanced Ch.16, 17

    0-91 term

    30-day fed funds futures#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    A contract on the average effective rate over one calendar month, quoted as 100 minus that rate
    RelatedEffective fed funds rateEffective federal funds rate (EFFR)VIX future
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.14

    A1 term

    Annualized rate#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    A monthly change compounded for twelve months
    RelatedMonth over month and annualizedMonth over month (MoM)Contribution
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.6

    B10 terms

    Base effect#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The change in YoY caused by the month that drops out of the 12-month window
    RelatedYear over year (YoY)ConsensusWhisper number
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.6
    Basis point (bp)#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    One hundredth of a percentage point, 0.01%
    RelatedDV01Federal funds target rangeCurve spread (2s10s, 3m10y)
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.4GhostWire Ch.14GhostWire Ch.22
    Basis trade#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    Long a cash Treasury, short the matching future, financed in repo, to collect a small convergence
    RelatedBasis point (bp)Basis and basis riskSOFR and IORB
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.22
    Bid and ask#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The price at which a dealer buys (bid) and sells (ask) the base currency
    RelatedMarket maker (dealer)DepthMicroprice
    Taught inAdvanced Ch.17
    Bid-to-cover, tail, dealer takedown#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    Bids divided by the amount sold; the high yield minus the when-issued yield; the share dealers had to absorb
    RelatedMarket maker (dealer)Short interest and days to coverFat tails
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.22
    Blackout period#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The stretch before a meeting when officials stop speaking publicly on policy
    RelatedFOMC and blackout periodMarket-implied pathBuyback blackout
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.4
    Breakeven inflation#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The nominal Treasury yield minus the TIPS yield of the same maturity
    RelatedReal yield (TIPS)Headline and core inflationGrowth and inflation quadrants
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.6GhostWire Ch.22GhostWire Ch.28
    Break-even widening#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The spread rise that cancels one year of carry
    RelatedCarryBreak-even moveBreak-even product
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.23
    Brent and WTI#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The two benchmark crude oil prices, one priced from the North Sea, one from the United States
    RelatedRegime and dominant driverHeadline and core inflationLiquidity
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.28
    Bull, bear, steepener, flattener#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    Bull: yields fall. Bear: yields rise. Steepener: the long-minus-short spread widens. Flattener: it narrows
    RelatedConvexityCurve spread (2s10s, 3m10y)Modified duration
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.22

    C11 terms

    Carry#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    Income earned by holding the bond, here the spread over Treasuries
    RelatedCarry (cash-and-carry)Break-even wideningProfessional and non-professional
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.23
    CDS and CDX#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    Credit default swaps on one borrower, and indices of them
    RelatedCreditCredit spreadNew-issue concession and order book
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.23
    Consensus#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    GhostWire Ch.6The average forecast from a survey of economists
    GhostWire Ch.25The average of published analyst estimates for a line such as earnings per share or revenue
    RelatedWhisper numberBeat and raiseSurprise
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.6GhostWire Ch.25
    Contribution#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    Weight × the component’s percentage change
    RelatedRelative importance (weight)Risk parityRisk share
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.6
    Convexity#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The curvature of the price-yield relationship: a yield fall adds more price than an equal rise removes
    RelatedBull, bear, steepener, flattenerYield to maturity (YTM)Curve spread (2s10s, 3m10y)
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.22
    Core and supercore#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    Core excludes food and energy; supercore is core services excluding shelter
    RelatedHeadline and coreHeadline and core inflationShelter and owners’ equivalent rent
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.6
    Coupon#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The fixed interest payment, stated as a percent of face value per year
    RelatedPar, discount, premiumYield to maturity (YTM)Term premium
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.22
    CPI-U and CPI-W#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    Price indexes for all urban consumers and for urban wage earners and clerical workers
    RelatedContributionSeasonal-factor revisionCore and supercore
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.6
    Credit spread#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The extra yield a borrower pays over a Treasury of the same maturity
    RelatedBreakeven win rateCDS and CDXNew-issue concession and order book
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.23
    Cross rate#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    A pair quoted without the dollar, such as EUR/JPY
    RelatedSpread (pair)Cross marginOpening and closing cross
    Taught inAdvanced Ch.17
    Curve spread (2s10s, 3m10y)#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    Long yield minus short yield, in basis points
    RelatedBasis point (bp)DV01Modified duration
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.22

    D5 terms

    Default intensity (hazard)#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The annual chance of default implied or observed
    RelatedCDS and CDXRecovery rateMaturity wall
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.23
    Discount rate#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The rate on loans from the Fed’s own lending window to banks
    RelatedDiscount rate (r)Yield to maturity (YTM)Federal funds target range
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.4
    Dissent#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    A vote against the majority decision
    RelatedDiscount rateSOFRBasis point (bp)
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.4
    Dollar index (DXY)#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The dollar measured against a weighted basket of six currencies, more than half of it the euro
    RelatedDollar-neutralRolling correlationReal yield
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.28
    DV01#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The dollar change in a position’s value for a one basis point move in yields
    RelatedBasis point (bp)Curve spread (2s10s, 3m10y)Modified duration
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.14GhostWire Ch.22

    E6 terms

    Effective fed funds rate#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The overnight rate banks actually pay one another, which sits inside the target range
    RelatedEffective federal funds rate (EFFR)30-day fed funds futuresTarget (minimum acceptable return)
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.14
    Effective federal funds rate (EFFR)#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The volume-weighted median rate actually paid in overnight federal funds trades
    RelatedFederal funds target rangeEffective fed funds rate30-day fed funds futures
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.4
    Effective leverage#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    Notional divided by equity
    RelatedEquityLeverage (L)Leverage ratio
    Taught inAdvanced Ch.17
    Equity#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    Account balance plus floating profit or loss
    RelatedEffective leverageFree marginMargin level
    Taught inAdvanced Ch.17
    Estimation error#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The gap between the edge measured in a backtest and the true edge
    RelatedAmplitude estimationStandard error of SharpeError correction
    Taught inAdvanced Ch.16
    Expectancy#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    Average result per unit risked, p×b − q
    RelatedStake units (N)Kelly fraction (f*)Log growth rate g(f)
    Taught inAdvanced Ch.16

    F8 terms

    Fallen angel#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    A bond downgraded from investment grade to high yield
    RelatedInvestment grade and high yieldCarryNew-issue concession and order book
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.23
    False-report rate#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    How often a source says a move is live when it does not happen
    RelatedImplied probability30-day fed funds futuresRepo and reverse repo
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.14
    Federal funds target range#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The band, 25 basis points wide, that the FOMC aims for in overnight bank lending
    RelatedBasis point (bp)Effective federal funds rate (EFFR)Effective fed funds rate
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.4
    FOMC and blackout period#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The committee that sets the policy rate, and the stretch before a meeting when officials stay out of public policy comment
    RelatedBlackout periodBuyback blackoutMeeting-month stub
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.14
    Forward guidance#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    Statements about the likely future course of policy
    RelatedGuidanceForward volatilityWalk-forward efficiency
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.4
    FR 2004 series#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The weekly dealer positions and financing release, published Thursdays near 16:15 ET (15:15 CT), broken out by maturity bucket
    RelatedMarket maker (dealer)Primary dealerEffective fed funds rate
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.14
    Fractional Kelly#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    A fixed share of f*, such as one half or one quarter
    RelatedKelly fraction (f*)Win probability (p)Estimation error
    Taught inAdvanced Ch.16
    Free margin#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    Equity minus used margin
    RelatedUsed marginEquityFree cash flow
    Taught inAdvanced Ch.17

    G1 term

    Growth and inflation quadrants#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The four combinations of growth rising or falling and inflation rising or falling
    RelatedHeadline and core inflationBreakeven inflationGordon growth formula
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.28

    H2 terms

    Hawkish and dovish#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    Leaning toward tighter policy, or toward easier policy
    RelatedForward guidanceReal policy rateSummary of Economic Projections (dot plot)
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.4
    Headline and core inflation#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    Headline counts everything; core leaves out food and energy
    RelatedHeadline and coreGrowth and inflation quadrantsBreakeven inflation
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.28

    I5 terms

    Implied probability#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The chance of a rate change that makes the expected rate equal the one in the price
    RelatedModel probabilityTouch probabilityWin probability (p)
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.14
    Index level and base period#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The index is scaled to 100 for 1982 to 1984; a level of 320 means prices are 3.2 times that base
    RelatedSurpriseWhisper numberMonth over month (MoM)
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.6
    Interest coverage#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    Operating earnings divided by interest expense
    RelatedNon-accrual and PIKFunding rate and open interestOpen interest
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.23
    Investment grade and high yield#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    Rated BBB-/Baa3 or higher, versus below that line
    RelatedInvestment discretionFallen angelNominal yield
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.23
    IORB and ON RRP#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    Interest on reserve balances paid to banks, and the overnight reverse repo rate paid to eligible counterparties
    RelatedSOFR and IORBReserveFederal funds target range
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.4

    K1 term

    Kelly fraction (f*)#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The fraction of equity risked per trade that maximises long-run growth, f* = p − q/b
    RelatedFractional KellyLog growth rate g(f)Stake units (N)
    Taught inAdvanced Ch.16

    L6 terms

    Leg#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    One trade inside a multi-part trade, such as an arbitrage loop
    RelatedDollar-neutralFill assumptionHedge
    Taught inAdvanced Ch.17
    Likelihood ratio#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    How many times more likely a report is when the event is coming than when it is not
    RelatedFR 2004 seriesFOMC and blackout period30-day fed funds futures
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.14
    Liquidity#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    How cheap and plentiful money is for buying risk
    RelatedRegime and dominant driverExit liquidityLiquidity pool and depth
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.28
    Log growth rate g(f)#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The average of ln(equity multiplier) per trade
    RelatedKelly fraction (f*)Gordon growth formulaGrowth and inflation quadrants
    Taught inAdvanced Ch.16
    Long-duration asset#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    An asset whose value rests on cash flows far in the future, such as a growth stock
    RelatedModified durationSpread durationRegime and dominant driver
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.28
    Loop product#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    Starting amount multiplied by every conversion rate around the loop
    RelatedTriangular arbitrageRate productBreak-even product
    Taught inAdvanced Ch.17

    M8 terms

    Margin call#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    A warning or demand when margin level falls to a set threshold
    RelatedMargin levelMaintenance requirement and margin callUsed margin
    Taught inAdvanced Ch.17
    Margin level#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    Equity divided by used margin, as a percentage
    RelatedMargin callUsed marginStop-out
    Taught inAdvanced Ch.17
    Market-implied path#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The sequence of policy rates that futures prices imply for coming meetings
    RelatedBlackout periodForward guidanceMinutes
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.4
    Maturity wall#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    Debt that must be refinanced within a short window
    RelatedConstant maturityYield to maturity (YTM)Call wall
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.23
    Meeting-month stub#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The days of the month after the decision takes effect
    RelatedFOMC and blackout periodRepo and reverse repoLikelihood ratio
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.14
    Minutes#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The detailed record of the meeting, released three weeks later
    RelatedOpening rangeOpening windowSmart Money Flow Index (SMFI)
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.4
    Modified duration#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    Approximate percentage price change for a one percentage point change in yield
    RelatedSpread durationLong-duration assetCurve spread (2s10s, 3m10y)
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.22
    Month over month (MoM)#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The percentage change from the previous month
    RelatedContributionYear over year (YoY)Annualized rate
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.6

    N4 terms

    Neutral rate#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The policy rate that neither speeds up nor slows the economy
    RelatedDelta-neutral positionDollar-neutralSummary of Economic Projections (dot plot)
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.4
    New-issue concession and order book#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The discount a borrower offers to sell new bonds, and the orders collected, often quoted as a multiple of the bonds on offer
    RelatedBid, ask and order bookOrder book imbalanceCDS and CDX
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.23
    Nominal yield#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The quoted bond yield, with no adjustment for inflation
    RelatedReal yieldBreakeven inflationYield to maturity (YTM)
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.28
    Non-accrual and PIK#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    A loan that has stopped paying interest in cash, and interest paid in added debt instead of cash
    RelatedMaturity wallInterest coverageCredit spread
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.23

    O2 terms

    ON RRP and standing repo facility#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The central bank’s overnight cash-absorbing window, and its overnight cash-lending window
    RelatedRepo and reverse repoRepo and haircutPrimary dealer
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.14
    Option-adjusted spread (OAS)#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The spread after the value of embedded options, such as a call right, is removed
    RelatedAdjusted (non-GAAP) earningsCarry-adjusted thetaDelta-adjusted notional
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.23

    P6 terms

    Par, discount, premium#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    Price at, below or above 100 per 100 of face value
    RelatedPremium or discountPremium or discount to NAVTerm premium
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.22
    Pass-through#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    How much of a cost change reaches the price the consumer pays
    RelatedGrowth and inflation quadrantsStagflationRisk-on and risk-off
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.28
    Payoff ratio (b)#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    Average win divided by average loss
    RelatedPayoff at expirationLog growth rate g(f)Expectancy
    Taught inAdvanced Ch.16
    Pip value#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    Currency value of one pip of movement per lot
    RelatedRisk at the stopExpectancyKelly fraction (f*)
    Taught inAdvanced Ch.16
    Premium or discount to NAV#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The gap between a fund price and the value of its holdings
    RelatedPar, discount, premiumPremium or discountNew-issue concession and order book
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.23
    Primary dealer#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    A bank that trades directly with the central bank and is expected to bid at Treasury auctions
    RelatedPivotal trial and primary endpointReserves and TGAON RRP and standing repo facility
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.14

    Q1 term

    Quantitative tightening (QT)#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    Shrinking the balance sheet by letting securities mature without replacement
    RelatedSOFRIORB and ON RRPBasis point (bp)
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.4

    R13 terms

    Real policy rate#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The policy rate minus expected inflation
    RelatedReal yieldReal yield (TIPS)Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot)
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.4
    Real yield#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The yield on inflation-protected Treasuries (TIPS), after expected inflation
    RelatedReal yield (TIPS)Nominal yieldReal policy rate
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.28
    Real yield (TIPS)#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The yield on an inflation-protected Treasury, whose principal is adjusted for inflation
    RelatedReal yieldBreakeven inflationReal policy rate
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.22
    Recovery gain#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The gain needed to return to the old peak, d / (1 − d)
    RelatedRequired recoveryRecovery rateRisk of ruin
    Taught inAdvanced Ch.16
    Recovery rate#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The share of face value lenders get back after a default
    RelatedRecovery gainRequired recoveryCDS and CDX
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.23
    Regime and dominant driver#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The force (growth, inflation, liquidity or fear) that is organizing prices right now
    RelatedLiquidityGamma flip and regimeStagflation
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.28
    Repo and haircut#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    A short-term loan, often overnight, secured by bonds; the haircut is the slice of collateral value the lender will not lend against
    RelatedHaircutRepo and reverse repoON RRP and standing repo facility
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.22
    Repo and reverse repo#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    Borrowing cash against collateral, and lending cash against it
    RelatedON RRP and standing repo facilityRepo and haircutPrimary dealer
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.14
    Reserves and TGA#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    Bank balances held at the central bank, and the Treasury’s cash account there
    RelatedPrimary dealerON RRP and standing repo facilityReserve
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.14
    Risk at the stop#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    Account-currency loss if the stop is hit
    RelatedStop-outPip valueRecovery gain
    Taught inAdvanced Ch.16
    Risk of ruin#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    Probability of ever reaching a set loss, such as −50% or zero
    RelatedWin probability (p)Recovery gainExpectancy
    Taught inAdvanced Ch.16
    Risk-on and risk-off#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    Markets favoring risk assets, or retreating to cash, bonds and havens
    RelatedSafe havenNominal yieldHeadline and core inflation
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.28
    Rolling correlation#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The correlation measured over a moving window of recent days or months
    RelatedCorrelation (ρ)Correlation breakdownDollar index (DXY)
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.28

    S15 terms

    Safe haven#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    An asset expected to hold value when risk assets fall
    RelatedRisk-on and risk-offReal yieldRegime and dominant driver
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.28
    Seasonal-factor revision#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The yearly recalculation of seasonal factors, which changes the seasonally adjusted history
    RelatedSmoothing factor (α)Seasonally adjusted (SA) and not adjusted (NSA)Consensus
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.6
    Seasonally adjusted (SA) and not adjusted (NSA)#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    SA removes predictable calendar patterns; NSA is the raw index
    RelatedAdjusted (non-GAAP) earningsCarry-adjusted thetaDelta-adjusted notional
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.6
    Shelter and owners’ equivalent rent#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The housing component, largely an estimate of what owners would pay in rent
    RelatedOwner codeCore and supercoreContribution
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.6
    Slippage#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The gap between the expected price and the price actually obtained
    RelatedPrice impact and slippagePer-leg costSlippage tolerance
    Taught inAdvanced Ch.14Advanced Ch.17
    SOFR#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The overnight rate on loans collateralized by Treasury securities
    RelatedSOFR and IORBDiscount rateQuantitative tightening (QT)
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.4
    SOFR and IORB#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The overnight repo benchmark rate, and the rate the Fed pays banks on reserves
    RelatedIORB and ON RRPSOFRReserve
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.22
    Spread#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    Ask minus bid, in pips or basis points
    RelatedBasis point (bp)Spread (pair)Effective leverage
    Taught inAdvanced Ch.17
    Spread duration#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The percentage price change per 1.00 point change in the spread
    RelatedModified durationLong-duration assetRecovery rate
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.23
    Stagflation#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    Weak growth with high or rising inflation
    RelatedGrowth and inflation quadrantsRegime and dominant driverReal yield
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.28
    Stake units (N)#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    Account size divided by the amount risked per trade
    RelatedCreation unitExpectancyKelly fraction (f*)
    Taught inAdvanced Ch.16
    Stale quote#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    A price that no longer matches the live market
    RelatedTriangular arbitrageBid and askEquity
    Taught inAdvanced Ch.17
    Stop-out#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    Automatic closing of positions at a lower margin level
    RelatedMargin levelRisk at the stopUsed margin
    Taught inAdvanced Ch.17
    Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot)#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    Each participant’s own projection for growth, inflation, unemployment and the policy rate, released quarterly
    RelatedReal policy rateMinutesNeutral rate
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.4
    Surprise#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    Actual minus a benchmark, often scaled by the typical size of surprises
    RelatedPost-earnings driftIndex level and base periodWhisper number
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.6GhostWire Ch.25

    T2 terms

    Term premium#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    Extra yield demanded for holding a long bond instead of rolling short-term paper
    RelatedPar, discount, premiumYield to maturity (YTM)Repo and haircut
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.22
    Triangular arbitrage#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    A loop of three trades that returns to the starting currency
    RelatedArbitrage re-pricingLegLoop product
    Taught inAdvanced Ch.17

    U1 term

    Used margin#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    Collateral locked by open positions, notional times the margin rate
    RelatedMargin levelFree marginStop-out
    Taught inAdvanced Ch.17

    V1 term

    Volatility drag#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The gap between arithmetic and geometric growth caused by swings
    RelatedRoll and premium dragLog growth rate g(f)Kelly fraction (f*)
    Taught inAdvanced Ch.16

    W2 terms

    Whisper number#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    An unofficial estimate that traders position around, often different from consensus
    RelatedConsensusSurpriseShelter and owners’ equivalent rent
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.6GhostWire Ch.25
    Win probability (p)#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The share of trades that finish as winners
    RelatedImplied probabilityModel probabilityTouch probability
    Taught inAdvanced Ch.16

    Y2 terms

    Year over year (YoY)#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The percentage change from the same month a year earlier
    RelatedBase effectContributionMonth over month (MoM)
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.6
    Yield to maturity (YTM)#
    Ch. 6Rates, Fed, Macro and Forex
    The single discount rate that makes the present value of every promised payment equal the bond price
    RelatedPresent value (PV)Discount rateDiscount rate (r)
    Taught inGhostWire Ch.22

    These are short meanings only. Each linked chapter shows how the term is used and works through examples. The chapters belong to the GhostWire and Advanced modules, which unlock on The Path.