A complete risk system, not just a position-size calculator — Monte Carlo drawdown simulation, losing-streak stress tests, and correlation-aware portfolio heat, all working off the same numbers.
Every trade should risk the same small slice of your account — that slice is called 1R. If you risk 1% of a $10,000 account, 1R = $100. A trade that makes double its risk is "+2R", one that hits its stop is "-1R". Thinking in R instead of dollars makes it easy to compare completely different trades on equal footing.
The four tools below all build on that idea: Position Sizing figures out your 1R and how many shares that buys you. Monte Carlo shows what happens to your account over hundreds of trades at your win rate. Losing Streaks shows the rough patches you will hit even with a real edge. Exposure checks whether your "different" trades are secretly all the same bet.
The foundation everything below builds on — your risk unit (1R) in dollars.
Position size = (Account × Risk%) ÷ (Entry − Stop). Everything in the Monte Carlo and stress-test panels below is expressed as a multiple of this same 1R dollar risk.
Runs hundreds of simulated equity curves at your win rate and R:R — shows the real spread of outcomes, not just the average. Account size is pulled from Position Sizing above; Win Rate and Risk Per Trade feed the Losing-Streak Stress Test below.
Shaded bands show the 10th–90th and 25th–75th percentile range across every simulated path, with the median path drawn as a solid line. *Ruin here means equity ever dropping below 50% of your starting account during the simulation — adjust risk per trade and watch how fast that probability moves.
Consecutive losses are inevitable at any win rate below 100% — this shows how likely they are, and what they cost. Uses the Win Rate and Risk Per Trade from Monte Carlo above — change them there to update this table.
| Streak Length | Prob. within 150 trades | Capital Remaining |
|---|
Probability uses your win rate above from the Monte Carlo panel. Capital Remaining assumes each loss in the streak costs your current Risk Per Trade %, compounding: (1 − risk%)^streak length.
Three "different" positions in the same trade idea are one bet wearing three tickers. Group them honestly.
Max recommended total heat is typically 6–10% of account across all open risk at once. Any single correlation group crossing ~6% on its own usually means it isn't three trades — it's one trade, sized three times.