A complete risk system, not just a position-size calculator: Monte Carlo drawdown simulation, losing-streak stress tests, and correlation-aware portfolio heat, all working off the same numbers.
Not financial advice. These tools do simple math on the numbers you type in. The simulation uses random trades, so it shows a spread of possible outcomes, not a prediction. A stop order can also fill worse than your stop price in a fast market. Speak with a licensed financial advisor before trading.
New to risk management? Start here.
Every trade should risk the same small slice of your account. That slice is called 1R. If you risk 1% of a $10,000 account, 1R is $100. A trade that makes double its risk is "+2R", and one that hits its stop is "-1R". Thinking in R instead of dollars lets you compare very different trades fairly.
The four tools below build on that idea. Position Sizing finds your 1R and how many shares it buys. Monte Carlo plays out hundreds of pretend runs at your win rate and shows what bigger or smaller bets would have done. Losing Streaks shows the rough patches you will hit even with a real edge, and how long a hole takes to climb out of. Exposure checks whether your "different" trades are secretly one bet.
Position Sizing
The foundation for everything below. It turns your stop into a share count so a loss stays at the size you chose.
Total money in the account
Percent of the account you accept losing
Where you plan to get in
Where you admit you are wrong and sell
Where you take your gain
Total fees to buy and sell. Many brokers charge 0
Risk : Reward Ratio (click one, or type your own)
Risk
:
Reward
Click sets your Target Price from your Entry and Stop. Longs and shorts both work.
Shares To Buy (Position Size)
0
Whole shares that fit your risk
Most You Lose (Dollar Risk, 1R)
$0
Account times risk percent
Win Size vs Loss Size (Reward : Risk)
1 : 0.00
Target distance over stop distance
Win Rate You Need (Breakeven)
0%
Win this often just to break even
What The Trade Costs (Position Value)
$0
Share of your account
If The Target Hits (Net Gain)
$0
After fees
If The Stop Hits (Net Loss)
$0
After fees
How Far The Stop Is (Stop Distance)
0%
Of the entry price
Fees As A Slice Of Your Risk
0%
Round-trip fees over 1R
Cash Left After Buying
$0
Account minus the position
Monte Carlo Drawdown Simulator
Plays out hundreds of pretend trading runs at your win rate and payoff, so you see the whole spread of outcomes and not just the average. It starts from the account size above and uses the same random runs every time, so the numbers hold still while you change things.
Risk : Reward Ratio (click one, or type your own)
Risk
:
Reward
Click sets Win Size vs Loss Size (R) below for the simulation.
Winners out of every 100 trades
2 means a winner pays twice what a loser costs
Percent of the account on each trade
How long each run lasts (10 to 1000)
More runs means a steadier answer
Percent grows and shrinks with the account
0.05 means fees take 5% of one loser
50 means you are done if half is gone
1.5 means growing the account by half
Typical Result (Median Final Equity)
$0
Half of runs end above this
Good Run (90th Percentile)
$0
Only 1 run in 10 beats this
Bad Run (10th Percentile)
$0
1 run in 10 ends below this
Typical Worst Dip (Median Max Drawdown)
0%
Biggest fall from a peak
Chance Of Hitting Ruin (Prob. of Ruin*)
0%
Runs that ever touched your ruin line
Chance Of Finishing Ahead
0%
Runs that ended above the start
Edge Per Trade (Expectancy)
0R
Average result of one trade
Chance You Hit Your Goal
0%
Runs that ever reached the goal
Longest Losing Streak (Median Run)
0
Losses in a row, worst point of a typical run
Bet size guide (Kelly)
Full Kelly (Fastest Growth Bet)
0%
The most a long run can bear, rarely wise
Half Kelly (Safer Version)
0%
Most of the growth with far smaller dips
Your Bet Compared To Full Kelly
0%
Your risk per trade over full Kelly
In plain English: the average hides how rough the ride can get. Two traders with the same edge can have very different years. One gets the smooth cyan line, the other gets unlucky and lives in the pink band for months. The shaded bands show the 10th to 90th and 25th to 75th percent range across every run, and the solid line is the median run. *Ruin here means equity ever touching your ruin line. The table reuses the exact same runs with a different bet size, so you see only the effect of the bet and none of the luck. Kelly is the bet size that grows an account fastest in the long run, and it assumes your win rate is exactly right, which it never is, so most traders use half of it or less.
Losing-Streak Stress Test
Any win rate below 100% means losses in a row will happen. This shows how likely they are, what they cost and how long the climb back takes. It uses the win rate, payoff, risk and trade count from the Monte Carlo panel above, so change them there.
Try the longest run of losses you could stomach
Longest Streak To Expect (Typical Run)
0
Losses in a row within the trade count
Chance Of Your Streak
0%
At least this many in a row
Account Left After It
0%
Of the starting account
Winners In A Row To Climb Back
0
Wins needed to get back to even
Correlation-Aware Exposure
Three "different" positions in the same idea are one bet wearing three tickers. Add your open trades and group the ones that move together. Example trades are loaded so you can see how it works, press Clear All to start your own.
The stock, ETF or coin
Percent of the account on this trade
Same idea, same group name. Example: Tech Longs, Crypto
Most traders stay between 6 and 10
One idea sized three ways is still one idea
Total Risk Open (Portfolio Heat)
0.0%
All open positions added together
Biggest Pile-Up
None
The group with the most risk
Open Positions
0
Added so far
Room Left Under Your Cap
0.0%
Before you hit your cap
Truly Separate Bets (Effective Bets)
0
Counting each group as one bet
If Every Stop Is Hit At Once
$0
Account left in that case
Visualizer
Every chart, table and gauge for the four tools above, in one place. Everything here updates from the inputs above.
Position size and what-if risk
What you riskWhat you stand to makeYour entry
What if you risked a different amount
Risk Per Trade
Dollar Risk (1R)
Shares
Position Value
Share Of Account Used
In plain English: the pink zone is what you risk (entry down to the stop). The cyan zone is what you stand to make (entry up to the target), with small ticks at +1R, +2R and +3R. The bigger the cyan zone compared with the pink, the better the reward for the risk. Position size = (account x risk %) / (entry - stop). The table shows how the share count changes if you risk more or less, and your own row is highlighted.
Monte Carlo drawdown runs
Typical run (median)Middle half of runsMiddle 80% of runsRuin line
Move your cursor over the chart to read the spread of balances after any trade.
What bigger or smaller bets would have done (same random runs)
Risk Per Trade
Typical Result
Bad Run
Typical Worst Dip
Chance Of Ruin
Chance Finishing Ahead
Losing-streak stress test
ConservativeModerateReckless
Move your cursor over the bars to read the chance of each streak length.
Streaks to expect
Losses In A Row (Streak Length)
Chance It Happens Within 150 Trades
Account Left After (Capital Remaining)
Climbing out of a hole
If The Account Falls By
Gain Needed To Get Back
Typical Trades To Recover
In plain English: a 45% win rate feels bad in the moment because you lose more often than you win. If your winners are bigger than your losers, you can still be profitable. The chart and table show the losing streaks to expect, so they do not feel like something broke when they arrive. The recovery table shows the harsh arithmetic of drawdowns: losing 50% needs a 100% gain to get back, which is why protecting the account matters more than chasing gains. Trades to recover is the average pace of your edge, so real life will be bumpier.
Exposure and pile-ups
If one idea goes wrong
Group
Positions
Risk (% Of Account)
Dollar Risk
Account Left If It Stops Out
Status
In plain English: long NVDA, TSLA and a semiconductor ETF is not three trades. It is one bullish tech bet with three price tags, and if tech turns down all three lose together. Grouping by what really moves together shows your true risk. The gold line on each bar is your cap. Most traders keep total open risk around 6 to 10% of the account, and a single group above about 3 to 4% is usually one trade sized several times. Dollar amounts use the account size from Position Sizing above.