Borrowed-money trades, memecoins, 0DTE options and moonshots can all lose the whole bet fast. Type in your account size and your trade, and this shows how risky it really is for you, in plain English. It does not judge the play. It just makes the risk concrete so you walk in with eyes open.
Not financial advice, and not encouragement. This calculator exists to make the risk of these trade types concrete and personal to your account. It does not recommend for or against making any of them. High leverage, memecoins, 0DTE options and long shots can all lose 100% of the position, often quickly. Never risk money you can't afford to lose completely, and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Read this before you type anything. Every trade type below can lose 100% of the position, often within minutes. If you can't afford to lose the exact dollar amount you are about to enter, close this tab instead.
What does "Degen" mean here?
Each of these trades can realistically go to zero, not just down a lot. That is very different from a stock dropping 20%. This tool rates each play from Sensible to Cook or be Cooked, based on how much of your account is exposed to that all-or-nothing result and how fast it can arrive.
Casino-style plays are not automatically wrong, and plenty of experienced traders keep a small, deliberate degen budget. The problem is sizing one like a normal trade, and this tool is here to stop that from happening by accident. Plain wording comes first, with the trading term in parentheses beside it.
Can I Afford To Lose This? (Account Deficit)
Two questions, one chart: what is the real dollar hole if this goes to zero, and how far would you need to climb to get back to even? The dots stack left to right (Margin, then +Memecoin, then +0DTE), so the rightmost dot is your true combined position if all three went wrong at once.
Move your cursor over the chart to see what any loss would cost you and how big a gain it takes to get back to even.
Margin / Leverage
$0 lost → $0 left
0% of account · 0% recovery needed
Memecoin
$0 lost → $0 left
0% of account · 0% recovery needed
0DTE
$0 lost → $0 left
0% of account · 0% recovery needed
Overall Rating
Sensible
Average across all three plays
If All Three Went Wrong at Once
0%
gain needed just to break even, $0 combined loss
Pick a number you could lose without it hurting. Shown as the gold line on the chart
Your Budget In Dollars (Risk Budget)
$0
Account size times your percent
Budget Check (All Three Together)
-
Money at risk vs your budget
Account deficit is the real dollar hole, not a percentage: the actual number missing from your account if that play goes to zero. Before you commit to anything above, ask whether you can afford that number and whether you are okay with how far you would have to climb back.
This one number feeds every calculator below. Change it once here and every score updates.
Margin / Leverage (10x+)
Perpetuals, futures or margin positions at high leverage. The number that matters is how little the price has to move before you are wiped out (liquidated).
10x means every $1 of yours controls $10
The money you put up. This is what you can lose
Long wins if the price rises, short if it falls
Used to show the price that wipes you out
Where you would cut the trade. 0 means no stop
Charged when you open and again when you close
SensibleDegenCook or be Cooked
Share Of Your Account (% of Account)
0%
How much of your account this trade uses
Total Bet Size (Position Size)
$0
Your cash times the borrowed power
Move That Wipes You Out (Liquidation)
0%
The price move against you that ends the trade
Cash Left If Wiped Out
$0
The rest of your account
Gain Needed To Get Back (Recovery)
0%
Gain on what is left to reach where you started
Most You Can Lose (Margin)
$0
Your own cash in this trade
Price That Wipes You Out (Liquidation Price)
-
Simplified. Real exchanges liquidate a bit earlier
Fees For In And Out (Round-Trip Fees)
$0
Charged on the full position size
Loss If Your Stop Hits (Stop-Loss)
-
Fees included, capped at your margin
In plain English: at 10x, about a 10% move against you wipes the position. At 50x it is about 2%, and at 100x about 1%, which is closer to noise than a real price move. Higher leverage does not only mean bigger wins and losses, it means the distance to zero shrinks fast.
Memecoin
No earnings, no business, no floor. Some memecoins 10x, and most eventually round-trip to zero.
What you are putting in. This is what you can lose
1 means you simply buy the coin, no borrowing
Your honest guess. Most memecoins fail
5 means your cash grows 5 times
Total for buying and selling. Thin coins cost more
Share of your cash you get back on a miss
SensibleDegenCook or be Cooked
Share Of Your Account (% of Account)
0%
How much of your account this trade uses
Total Bet Size (Position Size)
$0
Your cash times the borrowed power
Move That Wipes You Out (Wipeout)
-
Only if you borrow. Spot needs a true zero
Account If It Goes To Zero
$0
What is left of your account
Gain Needed To Get Back (Recovery)
0%
Gain on what is left to reach where you started
Most You Can Lose (Cash In)
$0
The cash you put into the coin
Average Result On This Bet (Expected Value)
$0
Win chance and payout together, costs included
Win Chance You Need (Break-Even)
0%
Below this the bet loses money on average
Bet Size The Math Allows (Kelly Stake)
0%
Full Kelly. Many traders use a quarter to half
In plain English: unlike a stock, a memecoin has no earnings, no business and no floor to fall back on, so zero is a normal outcome and not a rare one. Add borrowed money on top and it does not even need to hit zero. A leveraged memecoin can wipe out on a boring dip that a spot holder would have shrugged off.
0DTE Options
Options that expire today (0DTE, zero days to expiration). Time decay (theta) is brutal on a normal option, and on expiration day it is savage.
Total cost of the contracts. This is what you can lose
How far the strike sits from the stock price
The stock or ETF the option is on
1 contract controls 100 shares
A normal day's swing. Around 0.8 for SPY, more for single stocks
Close is 4:00 PM ET (3:00 PM CT / 16:00). A full day is 6.5
SensibleDegenCook or be Cooked
Share Of Your Account (% of Account)
0%
How much of your account this trade uses
Strike Distance (OTM Level)
-
From near the money up to lotto ticket
Most You Can Lose (Premium)
$0
What you paid for the contracts
Account If Worthless
$0
What is left of your account
Gain Needed To Get Back (Recovery)
0%
Gain on what is left to reach where you started
Expires (Today's Close)
4:00 PM ET
(3:00 PM CT / 16:00), then the option is gone
Cost Per Share (Premium / Share)
$0
Premium divided by 100 shares per contract
Move Needed To Break Even (Strike + Premium)
-
How far the stock must go to just earn back the premium
Chance It Gets There By The Close
0%
Rough odds from the daily move you entered
In plain English: 0DTE contracts often expire completely worthless, with no tomorrow for time decay to give anything back. Even a small 0DTE position carries more built-in risk than the same dollars in a longer-dated option, because there is no time left to be wrong and recover. Try the 0DTE Theta Burn Timer to see when time decay alone takes your premium, or the Black-Scholes Options Calculator and its Theta Decay Meter to see how steep the curve gets near expiration.
Moonshot Math (Lottery-Ticket Plays)
Small stakes on long shots with a huge payout if one lands. Enter the odds you honestly believe, the payout on a hit, and how many tickets you plan to buy.
Be honest, most people guess too high
20 means you get 20 times your stake
What each play costs
How many times you take the shot
Share of the stake you get back on a miss
Average Result Per Ticket (Expected Value)
$0
What one ticket is worth on average
Hit Chance You Need (Break-Even)
0%
The win rate where the bet stops losing
Chance Of At Least 1 Hit
0%
Across your whole set of tickets
Tickets For A 90% Shot
0
To be 90% sure of landing at least one
Chance Of Ending In Profit
0%
After paying for every ticket
Chance Every Ticket Misses
0%
You lose the whole set
Total Staked (Total Cost)
$0
Every ticket added up
Expected Total Result
$0
Average outcome of the whole set
Bet Size The Math Allows (Kelly Stake)
0%
Full Kelly per ticket. Many traders use a quarter to half
Hits Needed To Profit
0
Hits out of your tickets to finish ahead
Most Common Result (Mode)
0
The hit count you will see most often
Bad Day Result (Worst 5%)
$0
Only 1 set in 20 does worse than this
Finishes in profitFinishes down
In plain English: a moonshot can be a fair bet and still lose most of the time. When the odds are small, the wins come in rare clumps, so the usual result is a string of misses and the occasional big hit. Two things decide whether the math works: whether your odds estimate is honest, and whether you can afford enough tickets to give the hits time to show up. Most people overrate their odds, so try cutting yours in half and see what changes.
Not financial advice, and not encouragement. Moonshot Math is an educational model that treats every ticket as independent, with the same odds and payout you type in. Real trades are not coin flips. Odds are guesses, payouts are not guaranteed, fees and slippage are ignored, and positions can lose their whole stake. Only stake money you can afford to lose completely, and speak with a licensed financial advisor before trading.